The Dollar Index Price fell down by 9% over 2017 and in so doing, allowed a surprising amount of JPY strength that many did not even think of even though with the continued strong risk sentiment as shown by record highs in equities.
While the USD/JPY rate is long away from low at 108 as traders are still confused by the rate not rising. Some blame Bank of Japan whereas others see this Fed’s fault. On the other hand, traders should be aware that JPY has weakened a lot against other currencies especially EUR. With the Ichimoku Cloud technical study, on price chart traders can see that price looks to be testing support.
The cloud base is near 112.30, but looking to the future cloud, traders see a little conviction one way or other as the cloud has almost thinned. There is no doubt that the uncertainty of future trend at the beginning is shown by that coincidence of thinning cloud. Traders are it institutional or retail, tend to see the beginning of the year as the time to make their stakes on a large scale so position setting tends to be strong at the start. The starting of the year and the uncertainty as shown by Ichimoku could lead to nice jump that has been supported by the jump in USD/JPY 1-month that recently reached the lowest level.
The resistance of USD/JPY is a short-term one at 55-DMA at 112.96 with support at just 112.30, the Ichimoku Base and further at 112.10 (100-DMA). At this point of time in the year where volatility is lowest since 2014, a breakout that aligns with an increase in implied volatility could be a recipe for a move toward 113.15(Dec. 27 low) and the 113.75(Dec. 12 high).
Previous three trading years have provided dismal moves in USD/JPY of 0.8%, -2.85% & -3.65% respectively. Traders should watch for a further slow melting of the price below current price support of 112. The rapid rise in long retail positions, on the contrary, provides bias to favor further losses with drop-in short-positions.