Weekly GBP/USD Forecast from October 1 to October 5

GBP_USD Forecast for the Week 01-Oct to 05-Oct

One more tough week for GBP/USD filled with following announcements Brexit headlines, Fed decision, Weak Data, The Conservative Party Conference and PMI data. 

Let’s take a Look on Technical and  Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD

Fundamental News Updates GBP/USD:

1. Conservative Party Conference: Sunday to Wednesday. Prime Minister Theresa May may face a challenge from hard-Brexiteers while playing an important role with her former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. Pro-Rayan MPs are also playing.

2. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:30. The first of Markit’s forward-looking indices relate to the manufacturing sector. The indicator stood at a not-so-impressive 52.8 points in August. A minor drop to 52.6 is on the cards. A fall below 50 would indicate contraction.

3. Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 8:30. A higher borrowing rate implies enhanced economic activity. After a level of 4 billion pounds in July, an increase to 4.8 billion is projected for August.

4. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 6:00. This housing sector measure comes out quite early. After a drop of 0.5%, a rise of 0.2% is on the forecast.

5. Construction PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The second PMI is for the more volatile construction sector. A minor drop from 52.9 to 52.8 points is on the cards. The figure dropped below 50 points early in the year and this can happen again.

6. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium’s measure rose by only 0.1% y/y in August, showing that inflation is not that high. A similar figure could be seen now.

7. Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. The third and final purchasing managers’ indicator from Markit is for the largest sector: the services one. Back in August, the number slightly surprised with 54.3 points, reflecting OK growth. It will be interesting to see if concerns about Brexit adversely impact the result. A score of 54 points is on the cards.

8. Halifax HPI: Friday, 7:30. Contrary to Nationwide, this HPI showed an increase back in August, but only 0.1%. A rise of 0.2% is expected now.

 

Technical Lines Chart:

GBPUSD forecast 01-oct to 05-oct

 

Important Technical Lines for Trading:

1. In July 1.3375 was a high point. After this 1.3315 captured the pair early that month.

2. In mid-July, there was a high point of 1.3215 for the pair and a lower height on the chart. The round number of 1.3100 supported the first pair in September.

3. After supporting the pair at the end of September, the round number of 1.3000 is important.

4. Under 1.3000 we find 1.2935, which is a high point at the end of August. 1.2865 different categories at the end of August Further down, 1.2790 supported the late August and earlier also.

5. When the pair was on the previous leg, 1.2750 kept the pair down. The current 2018 deficit is at the next level at 1.2660.

6. The swing was low on 1.25 9 September 2017. Even less, 1.25 is a round number and at the beginning of 2017 also worked as support.

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