Forecast AUD/USD: Enjoy the return week with Australian dollar shares. Hopes for a deal between the US and China certainly helped.
What will happen next? In the coming weeks, the RBA stands. Here is an updated technical analysis for the week’s highlights and AUD / USD.
Global shares returned and the climate gave rise to the demand of Australia at risk. US President Trump tweeted about a successful conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
At the end of the week, the hope of a deal by the authorities was cooled down. Australian CPI is slightly disappointed with 0.4% Q / Q on both title and original data, but overall inflation is stable.
The balance of trade beat expectations with the broad surplus but retail sales slumped a bit.
1. AIG Services Index: Sunday, 21:30. In September the gauge of the Australian industry group of the service sector was 52.5, which was slightly above the 50-point gauge, which separates the extension from contraction. A similar score is now possible.
2. MI inflation gauge: Monday, 00:00. Inflation measures of the Melbourne Institute are helpful because the authorities have issued official CPI data only once per quarter. The gauge increased by 0.3% in September. Now we will get the latest figures for the first month of Q4 October.
3. ANZ Job Advertisement: Monday, 00:30. Before the report of official jobs, ANZ’s employment measure came out. A drop of 0.8% was recorded in September and now we can see a bounce.
4. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. Australia’s Reserve Bank
Interest rates have not changed since mid-2016. It maintains a neutral stance but expresses some concerns about global development, the housing market, and other issues. On the other hand, the job situation is fine. It would be interesting to see if RBA has changed its stand in view of recent inflation data.
5. AIG Construction Index: Tuesday, 21:30. The second publication of AIG for the week is for the construction sector. It’s not doing so late in so well. The latest figure for September was 49.3 below the 50-point limit and was indicating contraction.
6. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Friday, 00:30. The quarterly report by the central bank has sometimes indicated for future monetary policy. It provides a comprehensive view of the economy compared to the low rate statement. Any sign of changes in interest rates will be examined by the markets.
7. Home Loans: Friday, 00:30. Loans in homes fell 2.1% in August, a disappointing result. Another fall, this time of 1.1% has been introduced for September. Concerns about the housing sector are increasing.
1. 0.7480 captured the pair in mid-July and defended the level of 0.75. 0.7420 added two pairs in mid-July. In mid-July, there was 0.7360 low point.
2. 0.7310 is at the lower level of July 2018. The swing was low at the end of August 0.7240 and the pair attempted to reach mid-September.
3. The round number of 0.7200 was a temporary low. 0.7150 was a stepping stone on the way in early September. At the end of October 0.7020 was the last defense before the low point and the round number of 0.70.
4. The round number of 0.70 is closely watched by many market participants. Close, played a role in 0.6970 January 2017. Below, only the notable level is only 0.6825, which supports the pair at the end of 2016 and at the beginning of 2017.