Commodity Forecast

Gold (Close price: $1282.60)

News: Last week the major focus was on Brexit deal and its outcome. U.K Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote but Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been rejected by the house of common. This was the largest defeat for a sitting government in history. Now conflict between Theresa May and the opposition party continue to grow. This uncertainty has been supportive of the dollar. While policymaker in Europe remains monetary easing stance active in future.

US Government partial shutdown continues on its 27th day, the longest shutdown of the government in the history. If politicians not able to resolve issues, it could have a negative impact on US GDP numbers.

Recent Fed dovish stance on future rate hike solely depends on market condition also weighs on dollar index and put upside limited.US and China trade war positive talk and its positive outcome put pressure on Dollar index and act as a catalyst for Gold price rise above $1300.

Dollar index almost falls more than 1% after hitting 97.50 during the first week of December, now trading at 96.

Analysis: Gold almost raised $100 in the last 3 months from NOV 18 to Jan 19. This price really starts from a level of $1200 to $1300.40. Now next leg of price move expected only above $1300 to take away this price level require strong momentum which is lacking this time.

Price struggle to hold the above level of $1297 and easily pulled down to test $1287 level. Last Friday price gives up the support of $1287 and falls below to test strong support of $1280. As per Fibonacci percentage levels 0.236% support came at $1276.77 and 0.382% level come at $1262.17. Time wise and price wise correction in Gold price expected and in meantime momentum indicator like RSI cool off from overbought level to neutral level.

Gold Technical Forecast

Technical Outlook:

Technically price still in uptrend and retracement is buying opportunity near $1262 level with a price target above $1300 with strong support came at $1250. In short term and for an active trader who trades with active stops can sell Gold near $1285-$1288 with price target below $1270 with strict cut loss level of $1297.

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Gold 1271.43 1278.23 1282.43 1289.23 1296.03 1300.23 1307.03
WTI Crude Oil (Close price: $53.73)

News: WTI Oil prices climbed to a level of $53.73 as China and US trade tension eases and demand from both countries increased. West Texas Intermediate crude oil delivery for February delivery raised $1.73 to settle at $53.80 a barrel on the Nymex.

Production from OPEC’s countries also looking to decrease its production and these 14 members sank by 751,000 barrels a day last month, which results visible in prices in the early week of Jan 19.

Crude Oil Forecast

Technical Analysis:

If crude oil breaks above the $53 level, the market could go to higher levels, as high as $55 where we would see even more resistance. Now price band for crude oil remains between $50.50-$55.

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
WTI Crude oil 45.8 47.79 49.01 51 52.99 54.21 56.2


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