USD/CAD Pair Approaches Major Hurdle 1.3650-1.3660 Zone

Economic News:  

In the first trading week of the New Year USD/CAD pair traded in a small range. The pair traded in a range of just 50-70 pips.

Major Canadian economic data will be released this week and also its counterpart US will release high impact data like Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment rate, NFP.

The value of the CAD dollar, or the loonie, has a strong correlation with oil prices. That means increases in oil prices will result in increases in the value of the loonie versus the U.S. dollar. Crude oil imparts more than 10% of Canada’s foreign earnings Apart from this no any service or goods provide foreign income to Canada to gain foreign exchange reserve.

The slump in Crude oil prices put a major impact on growth and GDP of Canada.

Last Month Canadian employment change number showed improvement to 94.1K vs. 10.5K. The central bank of Canada had hawkish tone on its December policy meet.

WTI crude, which is currently selling at $45 a barrel, has plunged more than 30% in just three months. Weaker economic conditions worldwide could weigh on mean that oil prices in the coming months.

Rise in Crude oil prices in the year 2019 will benefit CAD currency.

Pair Outlook:

The USDCAD pair broke minor support 1.3620 yesterday and trade below it, pair facing resistance around 1.3650-1.3655. The pair can correct in sideways consolidation with lower support comes at 1.3560-1.3555. Break of this can lead pair to test strong support of 1.3480-1.3500.

On upside price need to break 1.3660 to test swing high 1.3700-1.3750 made in May 2017. If price not able to hold 1.3600 this is the first sign of momentum reversal.

If upcoming data will not come as anticipated than dollar index comes under pressure

As per trader point of view near 1.3660 is good to reduce long exposure / raise protective stops.

Technical Strategy:

On daily time frame pair forms an exhausted candlestick pattern near the level of 1.3650-1.3655, price rejection selling on upper side expected.

Price now trading near 5 days short-term moving averages with a widening gap between moving averages, any entry on the long side at this level not suggested.

USD/CAD Forecast

Price broke from upside trending channel and taking support near breakout area. If the price falls below this it increases momentum on downside and pair can again trade in the channel with lower support at 1.3450-1.3460. On upside above 1.3660 pairs can test 1.3710-1.3754.

Doji pattern and a long led candle near 1.3660 acts as strong resistance.

Rsi momentum indicator also crosses below 70 marks from overbought zone suggest time wise and price wise correction will come.

Major support and resistance levels as below:

Symbol S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDCAD 1.3524 1.3561 1.3585 1.3622 1.3659 1.3683 1.372


Forex Trading Tips: Weekly USD/CAD Forecast for 20-Aug to 24-Aug

USD/CAD Forecast for 20-Aug to 24-Aug

USD/CAD was generally steady in the midst of the worldwide tempest activated by Turkey. Trusts in a NAFTA bargain kept supporting the Canadian Dollar. What’s straightaway? The retail deals report emerges. Here are the features and a refreshed specialized investigation for USD/CAD.

Turkey was the focal point of consideration as the emergency there activated dread of a more extensive logjam in developing markets. While the Australian and New Zealand dollars dropped, the Canadian one was steady and appreciated the progressing NAFTA arrangements.

Fundamental News Updates:

USD/CAD Forecast: Visit day by day diagram with help and obstruction lines on it. Scroll Down

Discount Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Deals at the discount level reflect desires for deals at the retail level which as of now speak to the more extensive economy. The volume of discount deals expanded by a hearty 1.2% in May, twofold the desires. We will now get the figures for June.

Retail Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada more often than not discharges the retail deals report close by the swelling information. This time, the imperative buyer figure has the all the consideration. The report for May was very promising with feature retail deals progressing by 2% and center deals climbing by 1.4%. The production for June may see a misfortune.

Corporate Profits: Thursday, 12:30. Benefits of Canadian corporates ascended by 2.7% in Q1 2018 in the wake of dropping in the last quarter of 2017. The report for Q2 may demonstrate another expansion.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD exchanged around the 1.3070 line (specified a week ago) amid a huge piece of the week.

aud-usd daily chart 13-Aug to 17-Aug

Specialized lines through and through:

1.3385 was the top on two events in late June. 1.3350 takes after close by in the wake of serving in the two headings in July 2017.

1.3295 held the match down in mid-July. 1.3220 topped it before in the month.

1.3170 filled in as opposition in mid-August. 1.3070 was a swing low in mid-July. 1.3030 gave some help in late July.

Beneath 1.3000 we locate the mid-August trough of 1.2960. 1.2820 was a low point for USD/CAD toward the beginning of June and the last line, for the time being, is 1.2730 which bolstered the combine in May.

The Canadian Dollar demonstrated its strength in weathering the worldwide tempest. It could make progress against the greenback if the last chills out.


USD/CAD Forecast July 23-27 – CAD Silently Recovering

Dollar/CAD finished most of the week trading in restricted ranges as no news on the trade front helped the loonie strengthen. The upcoming week includes just a single Canadian occasion, leaving the market mindset as the essential driver of the match. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canada’s Foreign Securities Purchases missed the mark regarding desires, however, producing deals were on the ascent. Oil costs stayed on the back foot, putting some weight on the C$. In the US, Fed Chair Jerome Powell communicated trust in the US economy and made an effort not to discuss exchange relations, helping the greenback. US retail deals were hardly superior to anticipated.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis:

1. Wholesale Sales: Monday, 12:30. The volume of sales at the wholesale level is employed by as a prediction of future retail sales. An unpretentious rise of 0.1% was seen in April and we may see an improved outcome this time.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis:

USDCAD forecast 23-July 27-July

USD/CAD floated in a run, testing the 1.3255 level seen a week ago, in the long run coming back to the range.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3795 held the pair down in April. 1.3560 capped the pair back in May 2017 and is a high point.

1.3385 was the peak on two occasions in late June. 1.3350 follows close by after serving in both directions in July 2017.

1.3255 was a line of support when the pair traded on high ground in late June. 1.3220 served as resistance for the pair in mid-July.

1.3125 is the high point for 2018 until it was broken. 1.3065 was the high point in May and also earlier in the year.

1.30 is a round number that is eyed by many. 1.2920 capped the pair in late April and early May as well. 1.2820 served as support in early May.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

Despite the backwind from the BOC, the menace of deteriorating trade relations with the US will likely weigh on the economy and the Canadian dollar.