EUR/USD Pair Trading Near Upper End Of Consolidation Band Breakout On Higher Side Possible

Economic News:  

In the last couple of months, EUR had been trading in a tight range with major choppy consolidation at on both higher and lower end. The major reason for this was uncertain Eurozone economic condition and Brexit from the eurozone area.

Major eurozone economic contributor like Germany also released weak data.ECB also going to lower down its forward guidance in policy upcoming policy meeting. Most investor speculating their position on euro ahead major events.

Now move to the US where major economic indicator improving and Fed have maintained their rate hike status quo.

Also, US president trump has initiated positive move to talk with China over trade war which develops the positive market condition for investment-related activities in the US.

Last week US NFP and Unemployment rate comes robust and better than expected.

Dollar index loses its strength after fed chairman comments that future rate hike and policy stance will depend on market condition.

Pair Outlook

The Euro not able to make a strong move against the US Dollar compared to last month. Pair faces steep resistance near 1.1500 levels. The pair tries to break above this level multiple times but not get success to surpass it. 

Euro is undervalued as compared to US dollar and positive and favorable condition from eurozone can act as a catalyst to euro.

If price breaks out from 1.1500 possible price target for came at 1.1530-1.1600. While lower end support comes at 1.1319-1.1320.

Technical Strategy

On daily charts, pair trading in a sideways trading channel with an upper end of the channel at 1.1501 and the lower end comes at 1.1267.

EUR/USD Forecast

Price action wise pair came to the lower level and took support around 1.1290-1.1300 zone multiple times. Momentum indicator trading sideways and losing momentum near mid part of indicator window near 50 levels.

As per chart pair is in forming a base or its just retracement of recent fall is of matter of time.

Above level of 1.1500 pairs can face minor resistance near 1.1530 but this can be easily taken out as pair consolidating and breakout of range can filled order above resistance immediately.

Major support and resistance levels as below:

Symbol S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EURUSD 1.1211 1.1284 1.1328 1.1401 1.1474 1.1518 1.1591

 

USD/CAD Pair Approaches Major Hurdle 1.3650-1.3660 Zone

Economic News:  

In the first trading week of the New Year USD/CAD pair traded in a small range. The pair traded in a range of just 50-70 pips.

Major Canadian economic data will be released this week and also its counterpart US will release high impact data like Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment rate, NFP.

The value of the CAD dollar, or the loonie, has a strong correlation with oil prices. That means increases in oil prices will result in increases in the value of the loonie versus the U.S. dollar. Crude oil imparts more than 10% of Canada’s foreign earnings Apart from this no any service or goods provide foreign income to Canada to gain foreign exchange reserve.

The slump in Crude oil prices put a major impact on growth and GDP of Canada.

Last Month Canadian employment change number showed improvement to 94.1K vs. 10.5K. The central bank of Canada had hawkish tone on its December policy meet.

WTI crude, which is currently selling at $45 a barrel, has plunged more than 30% in just three months. Weaker economic conditions worldwide could weigh on mean that oil prices in the coming months.

Rise in Crude oil prices in the year 2019 will benefit CAD currency.

Pair Outlook:

The USDCAD pair broke minor support 1.3620 yesterday and trade below it, pair facing resistance around 1.3650-1.3655. The pair can correct in sideways consolidation with lower support comes at 1.3560-1.3555. Break of this can lead pair to test strong support of 1.3480-1.3500.

On upside price need to break 1.3660 to test swing high 1.3700-1.3750 made in May 2017. If price not able to hold 1.3600 this is the first sign of momentum reversal.

If upcoming data will not come as anticipated than dollar index comes under pressure

As per trader point of view near 1.3660 is good to reduce long exposure / raise protective stops.

Technical Strategy:

On daily time frame pair forms an exhausted candlestick pattern near the level of 1.3650-1.3655, price rejection selling on upper side expected.

Price now trading near 5 days short-term moving averages with a widening gap between moving averages, any entry on the long side at this level not suggested.

USD/CAD Forecast

Price broke from upside trending channel and taking support near breakout area. If the price falls below this it increases momentum on downside and pair can again trade in the channel with lower support at 1.3450-1.3460. On upside above 1.3660 pairs can test 1.3710-1.3754.

Doji pattern and a long led candle near 1.3660 acts as strong resistance.

Rsi momentum indicator also crosses below 70 marks from overbought zone suggest time wise and price wise correction will come.

Major support and resistance levels as below:

Symbol S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDCAD 1.3524 1.3561 1.3585 1.3622 1.3659 1.3683 1.372

 

Asian Stocks Put In Mixed Showing As Data Do Too, USD Firmer

Forex Trading Alerts:

Most Asia Pacifica bourses oversaw picks up

However nearby factors held Chinese files under more weight

The US Dollar remained extensively firm after the Federal Reserve’s money related choice

Asian records were generally higher Thursday, following the moderate US picks up which came thus after the Federal Reserve allowed money related strategy to sit unbothered, of course.

The Nikkei 225 included 1.6%, with Australia’s ASX 200 up 0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi 0.3% in the green. China stocks were weaker, however with both the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng lower. PC-creator Lenovo announced a noteworthy quarterly misfortune which debilitated the general tone. It was brought down further in Hong Kong by some benefit taking in beforehand light property-improvement stocks

The session’s financial information was blended. China’s private makers saw humble picks up in January, Australia’s improved. However Australian building grant endorsements fell through the floor in December, a crumple which hit the Australian Dollar regardless of likely occasional impacts and the general unpredictability of the arrangement. The US Dollar was unobtrusively more grounded after the Fed flagged trust in both swelling and US development ahead.

Gold costs at first slipped, as they have a tendency to do for the most part when the possibility of higher US loan costs are the expansive market center. In any case, they livened up through Asian hours. Unrefined petroleum costs kept on moving forward on news of solid consistency with creation cuts from OPEC.

Still, to come Thursday is the UK’s assembling PMI, with Canada’s expected after that. The US monetary preview from the Institute for Supply Management is additionally coming up. Source

EURO may Fall on ECB Results

EUR Trading Alerts:

Euro may fall as ECB minutes cool wagers on QE reduction

BOE monetary conditions overviews far-fetched to support Pound

Aussie Dollar picks up on retail deals information, Yen pulls back

ECB money related strategy meeting minutes feature the financial timetable in European exchanging hours. Markets are scouring for indications of boost withdrawal over the G10 space – as plentifully showed in the Yen’s response to the standard change in BOJ security take-up – and any analysis proposing Mario Draghi and friends may adjust the way of QE buys speedier than publicized will probably drive Euro unpredictability.

Forex Signals: The ECB’s present €30 billion/month QE program is expected to lapse in September. Policymakers and markets most likely concur that a sudden end isn’t alluring. That leaves two choices on the table: bond purchases might be decreased into the current end date or the whole program might be expanded, considering a slow move off into the year-end (and conceivably past). The ever-careful ECB would likely select the second way.

Forex Trading Alerts: This accepts the ECB does not think that its fitting to give more jolt and broadens QE without a decreasing part in any case. Truth be told, President Draghi’s current proclamations have indicated that buys are in actuality open-finished, with September denoting a period when markets will be formally refreshed on the program’s destiny instead of an end date. The single cash may fall if the present discharge echoes that feeling.

The Bank of England Credit Conditions and Bank Liabilities reviews are additionally because of cross the wires. A touch of fixing has justifiably occurred since a year ago’s rate climb, however, general loaning conditions stay accommodative. In the meantime, swelling keeps on quickening. Brexit-related stresses will most likely weaken a clearly hawkish position, be that as it may, restricting the reports’ extension to help the British Pound.

The Japanese Yen turned comprehensively bring down in Asia Pacific exchange, with costs apparently adjusting after another solid day in all-out attack mode. In the meantime, the Australian Dollar exchanged extensively higher after a great arrangement of retail deals information. The money energized nearby neighborhood security yields, indicating the ruddy result filled a hawkish move in RBA premium climb desires. An expansion isn’t normal before August be that as it may. Source