Weekly GBP/USD Forecast October 8 Oct-12 Oct

Most of the times Brexit Headlines become movers of GBP/USD. Sometimes, it is a cause of sliding and sometimes it helps GBPUSD climb up. Same effect we have seen in the previous week. Brexit Headlines dramatically affects the movement of GBP/USD. Now What’s next? The GDP report stands out in the new week.
Let take look at this week news and technical level suppose to be good resistant and support for GBP/USD.

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD

1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium’s Retail Sales Monitor shows a marginal increase of 0.2% in August sales volume. Now we will get the number for September The report is before the official retail sale report.

2. FPC Statement: Tuesday, 8:30. In addition to monetary policy, the Bank of England is responsible for financial stability. The quarterly report of the Financial Policy Committee not only gives insight on the financial system but also the inherent economic conditions which affect this sustainability.

3. GDP: Wednesday, 8:30. This is the monthly GDP report for August, which provides more insights into Q3. In July the UK economy grew 0.3%, the first month of Q3 and the slowest set in August: 0.1%. Concerns about break sit can be attributed to any recession.

4. Manufacturing Production: Wednesday, 8:30. In July, manufacturing output declined by 0.2%, with the expectation of an increase of 0.2% to meet the expectations. In the manufacturing sector of UK, we enjoy weak pounds for our exports, but the weight is brake site. Now we will get the figures for August. Extensive industrial production measurement increased by 0.1% in July. Manufacturing production is expected to grow by 0.1%.

5. Goods Trade Balance: Wednesday, 8:30. There is an old trade deficit in the UK which reached 10 billion pounds in July. Figures of August will be similar. The weight of the deficit is on the long pound. The estimate of the deficit is estimated to increase to £ 10.9 billion.

6. RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. This gauge of the housing sector, standing at 2% in the latest publication for August, remained moderately unchanged in the positive area. This figure shows the percentage of surveyors who have seen the increase in prices. There is a duplication of 2% on the card.

7. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Thursday, 8:30. It is a description of the situation of lending in the Bank of England quarterly report. High levels of debt can create risk but express confidence in the economy’s growth. The survey provides estimates for the next three months.

GBP/USD Technical analysis

Technical Chart with Support and Resistant Levels from top to bottom: 

GBUUSD Technical chart 08-oct-20181. In July 1.3375 was a high point. After this, there was a high point and psychologically significant round number in September 1.3300.

2. In mid-July, there was a high point of 1.3215 for the pair and a lower height on the chart. The round number of 1.3100 supported the first pair in September.

3. 1.3045 provided support in September and captured the pair in August. After supporting the pair at the end of September, the round number of 1.3000 is important.

4. 1.2920 was a low point in early October. There were 1.2850 different categories in the last days of August and the first days of September.

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KLSE Stock News: Bursa holds stable on Wednesday as the previous session’s close at 1,798.20

Kuala Lumpur: Bursa Malaysia stock prices opened steady on Wednesday as the previous session’s close at 1,798.20 with FBM KLCI. There were 169.73 million shares traded valued at RM66.81 mil. There were 160 gainers versus 78 decliners and 203 counters unchanged.

Stock Watch

1. The most active KLSE stock list included Fitters rising 1.5 sen to 42 sen, Key Asic losing   1.5 sen to 19 sen and Hibiscus rising two sen to RM1.30. 
2. The top KLSE gainer stocks list, KESM rose 18 sen to RM15.20, Hengyuan gained 16 sen to RM6.96 and Petrason Gas added 10 sen to RM19.08. 
3. The Klse loser stock including Nestle, shaving 60 sen to RM 145.90, KLK dropping 24 sen to RM24.76 and Press Metal dipping five sen to RM4.80. Maybank lost three sen to RM9.71 and IOI slid three sen to RM4.53.

Global Market

Asia opened weaker with Japan’s Nikkei slipping 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.25%. Nasdaq index opens up today with 7,999.55 and previous close at -37.7 down and HANG SENG index open with 26,840.20 and previous close at 27,006.23

Currency Market

Forex Signals: After two days of downtrend backed by higher oil prices, the RINGGIT opened slightly higher against the US dollar on Wednesday. The local currency stood at 4.1380/1410 against 4.1400/1430 recorded at Tuesday’s closing. 
Ringgit mixed trade data with other currency- 
1. It slightly down against the Singapore dollar to 3.0108/0140 from 3.0100/0129 on Tuesday and declined versus the euro to 4.7765/7816 from 4.7668/7715. 
2. The local currency depreciated the Japanese yen to 3.6423/6459 from yesterday’s 3.6399/6438 and declined against the British pound to 5.3695/3738 from 5.3634/3677.

Commodity Market

Comex Crude Oil: The oil prices fall on Wednesday, oil prices remain near four-year highs reached earlier this week ahead of US sanctions against Iran’s oil exports that kick in next month.  Brent crude oil futures were trading at US $84.73 per barrel, down seven cents from their last close. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 10 cents at US$75.13 a barrel.

 

Weekly GBP/USD Forecast from October 1 to October 5

One more tough week for GBP/USD filled with following announcements Brexit headlines, Fed decision, Weak Data, The Conservative Party Conference and PMI data. 

Let’s take a Look on Technical and  Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD

Fundamental News Updates GBP/USD:

1. Conservative Party Conference: Sunday to Wednesday. Prime Minister Theresa May may face a challenge from hard-Brexiteers while playing an important role with her former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. Pro-Rayan MPs are also playing.

2. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:30. The first of Markit’s forward-looking indices relate to the manufacturing sector. The indicator stood at a not-so-impressive 52.8 points in August. A minor drop to 52.6 is on the cards. A fall below 50 would indicate contraction.

3. Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 8:30. A higher borrowing rate implies enhanced economic activity. After a level of 4 billion pounds in July, an increase to 4.8 billion is projected for August.

4. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 6:00. This housing sector measure comes out quite early. After a drop of 0.5%, a rise of 0.2% is on the forecast.

5. Construction PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The second PMI is for the more volatile construction sector. A minor drop from 52.9 to 52.8 points is on the cards. The figure dropped below 50 points early in the year and this can happen again.

6. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium’s measure rose by only 0.1% y/y in August, showing that inflation is not that high. A similar figure could be seen now.

7. Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. The third and final purchasing managers’ indicator from Markit is for the largest sector: the services one. Back in August, the number slightly surprised with 54.3 points, reflecting OK growth. It will be interesting to see if concerns about Brexit adversely impact the result. A score of 54 points is on the cards.

8. Halifax HPI: Friday, 7:30. Contrary to Nationwide, this HPI showed an increase back in August, but only 0.1%. A rise of 0.2% is expected now.

 

Technical Lines Chart:

GBPUSD forecast 01-oct to 05-oct

 

Important Technical Lines for Trading:

1. In July 1.3375 was a high point. After this 1.3315 captured the pair early that month.

2. In mid-July, there was a high point of 1.3215 for the pair and a lower height on the chart. The round number of 1.3100 supported the first pair in September.

3. After supporting the pair at the end of September, the round number of 1.3000 is important.

4. Under 1.3000 we find 1.2935, which is a high point at the end of August. 1.2865 different categories at the end of August Further down, 1.2790 supported the late August and earlier also.

5. When the pair was on the previous leg, 1.2750 kept the pair down. The current 2018 deficit is at the next level at 1.2660.

6. The swing was low on 1.25 9 September 2017. Even less, 1.25 is a round number and at the beginning of 2017 also worked as support.

Source

KLSE Stock News- Bursa Malaysia Stocks Open Lower on Tuesday, Oil Continues to Rise

Kuala Lumpur: Bursa Malaysia stock prices opened lower on Tuesday with the FTSE Bursa Composite Index down 0.53% to 1,791.93. There were 203.24 million shares traded valued at RM 76.82 mil. There were 163 gainers versus 84 decliners and 181 counters unchanged. 
Bursa Malaysia’s optimism vanished within minutes of the opening, as it erased gains to return to the starting line.

Stock Watch

1. The top KLSE active stock list including Sapura Energy was up one sen to 43.5 sen while Reach Energy gained 1.5 sen to 51 sen and Nova MSC gained 0.5 sen to 18 sen.

2. The top KLSE gainer stocks list, Air Asia was among the early gainers, adding four sen to RM3.10. Heavyweight Genting rose four sen to RM7.81 while Hengyuan climbed 12 sen to RM6.62.

3. The Klse loser stock including Hartalega slid four sen to RM6.56 in early trade. Maybank Investment Bank report said the glovemaker’s upcoming 2QFY19 core earnings is expected to be flattish. Meanwhile, CIMB slid three sen to RM5.98, Tenaga dipped two sen to RM15.50, Axiata shed two sen to RM4.63 and Public Bank lost two sen to RM 23.98.

Global Market

Nasdaq index opens up today with 8,037.3 and previous close at -9.0 and HANG SENG index open with 1.87% down to reach 27,268.42.

Chinese markets remained closed for its Golden Week holidays. Japan’s markets reached for a fresh 27-year high on news that trade tension in North America may finally have relieved, lending more positivity in the global trade environment.

Currency Market

The ringgit extended yesterday’s downtrend to open easier against the US dollar this morning as risk appetite for the greenback strengthened among rising oil prices. On Monday closing the local currency stood at 4.1400/1440 against 4.1380/1420. 
Ringgit mixed trade data with other currency-

1. It rose against the Singapore dollar to 3.0164/0195 from 3.0198/0238 on Monday and improved versus the euro to 4.7921/7979 from 4.8059/8118.

2. The local currency depreciated the Japanese yen to 3.6332/6370 from yesterday’s 3.6295/6340 and weakened against the British pound to 5.3990/4046 from 5.3976/3049.

Commodity Market

Comex Crude Oil prices fringed up on Tuesday, Brent crude oil futures were trading at US$85.05 per barrel, up seven cents from their last close, near the US$85.45 peak reached in the previous session, its highest since November 2014. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 25 cents at US$75.55 a barrel.

KLSE Stock News- Malaysia stocks open lower on Wednesday, Bursa Shares Continues Slide ahead of US Federal Decision

Kuala Lumpur: Bursa Malaysia continued its slide by opened its share prices lower on Wednesday with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index down 6.49 points to 1,787.98 at 9.01am. The trading volume was 115.48 million shares valued at RM53.74mil. There were 117 gainers versus 78 decliners and 179 counters unchanged. 

The consistency in share slide as global markets traded mixed ahead of decisions made at a two-day US Federal Reserve meeting set to end on Wednesday. Traders are broadly expecting the Fed to raise interest rates for the third time this year at the climax of the meeting in another round of tightening.

Stock Price Penetration

Pestech International Bhd, move higher  8 sen to RM1.53 as the group finally secured the Gemas-JB double track electrification project worth RM399mil. Other gainers included Scientex Berhad, which rose 14 sen to RM8.75 and UMW, pushing six sen higher to RM5.12.

On the losing end, Lotte Chemicals Titan shed 6 sen to RM5.01. Plantations were also seen to weigh with Sime Darby Plantation losing 5 sen to RM5.25 and IJM Plantation slide 3 sen to RM2.43.

Global Currency Market

The ringgit was almost unchanged against the US dollar in early trade Wednesday. At 9 am, the local currency stood at 4.1350/1400 against 4.1350/1390 recorded on the previous day. 

The ringgit traded mixed versus other major currencies
1. It rose against the Yen to 3.6609/6657 from 3.6638/6677 on Tuesday and strengthened against the Euro to 4.8628/8691 from 4.8644/8699. 
2. It depreciated against the Singapore Dollar to 3.0280/0321 from yesterday’s 3.0273/0309 and weakened against the British Pound to 5.4479/4561 from 5.4400/4465.

Commodity Market

The Brent oil fringe further away from a four-year high on Wednesday down 43 cents at US$81.44 a barrel. Earlier on Tuesday, Brent hit its highest since November 2014 at US$82.55 a barrel.

The US crude futures were down 40 cents at US$71.88 a barrel. The US said it would ensure crude markets are well supplied before the penalties are re-imposed on Iran.

 

 

Forex Forecast: GBPUSD Forecast Sept 24-Sept to 28-Sept 2018

GBP/USD Fundamental and Technical Forecast

GBP/USD had another unpredictable as best level figures contended with Brexit features and sent the match every which way. What’s straightaway? The last GDP release standouts. Here are the key occasions and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Brexit idealism around the Salzburg Summit was smashed when the EU dismissed the Chequers proposition by and large. The reaction of UK PM Theresa May was cruel too, sending the pound down after it had moved to two-month highs prior. UK swelling bounced to 2.7%, far above desires and sent the pound higher. The US went ahead with forcing exchange duties on China yet advertises took it with a walk pushing the greenback lower.

Fundamental Forecast GBP/USD


1. FPC Statement: Monday, 6:8:30. The Bank of England is additionally in charge of money related dependability notwithstanding setting fiscal arrangement, and the two things are connected. Money related dependability relies upon financial conditions. The quarterly report gives bits of knowledge into the current monetary circumstance and may move the pound.

2. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Monday, 10:00. The Confederation of British Industry demonstrated weakening conditions in the area back in August, with the marker dropping to 7 focuses following two months of positive astonishments. A drop to 5 focuses is on the cards.

3. High Street Lending: Wednesday, 8:30. The measure speaks to around 66% of UK contracts and is discharged before the official home loan number by the BOE. A disillusioning slide beneath 40K was found in July. We may now observe a bob from that 39.6K level. 39.7K is estimated now.

4. CBI Realized Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. The business makes sense of from CBI came superior to Order Expectations and hit a high of 29 focuses in August. We could see a slide now: 18 focuses are anticipated.

5. GFK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 23:01. The 2,000-in number overview beat desires in August with an ascent to – 7 focuses, yet the negative number still reflects cynicism among shoppers. A tick down to – 8 focuses is on the cards.

6. Final GDP: Friday, 8:30. The UK economy developed by 0.2% in Q2 as indicated by the underlying discharge that came nearby the primary month to month report for June. While we definitely know the month to month number for July, this last arrival of Q2 GDP is relied upon to give a more extensive point of view toward the economy. The quarterly figures don’t typically change yet updates to the week by week numbers are more typical.

7. Current Account: Friday, 8:30. The UK has an endless exchange parity and current record shortages. In Q1, the shortage limited to 17.7 billion. We will now get the number for Q2 close by the GDP report. A critical shock may take the show from the GDP report. A more extensive shortage of 19.4 billion is on the cards.

Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Forecast Sept 24-Sept to 28-Sept 2018

 

gbpusd 24-sept to 28-sept

1. 1.3375 was a high point in July. It is trailed by 1.3315 that topped the match before that month.

2. 1.3215 was the high point for the match in mid-July and a lower high on the diagram. It is trailed by mid-September pinnacle of 1.3145.

3. 1.3045 was a high point in August and furthermore near the underlying 2018 low.

4. Underneath 1.3000 we find 1.2935, a high point in late August. 1.2865 isolated ranges in late August. Additionally down, 1.2790 served as support late August and also beforehand

5. 1.2750 held the match down when the combine was on the back foot. The current 2018 trough at 1.2660 is the following level.

6. 1.2590 was a swing low in September 2017. Indeed, even lower, 1.25 is a round number and furthermore filled in as help in mid-2017.

 

GBP/USD Seems to be Neutral Since 21 Aug 18, Spot at 1.2795

Advance in GBP is approaching overbought but still scope for further strength.

Forex Signals: We have held a similar view since last Tuesday (11 Sep, spot at 1.3025) wherein we expect the bounce back in GBP to reach out to 1.3170. GBP, at last, achieved this level as it contacted a medium-term high of 1.3173. As featured before yesterday (18 Sep, spot at 1.3150), while the development in GBP is moving toward overbought, there is no indication of shortcoming right now and there is the degree for encouraging quality towards the following real level of 1.3215.

This is a generally solid resistance and a break of this level would be a decent sign that GBP could keep on advancing in the coming days. On the drawback, the ‘key support’ is right now at 1.3045, higher from 1.3000 previously.

 

Weekly Forecast USD/JPY 17-Sep to 21-Sep

USD/JPY Forecast Technical and Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY progressed pleasantly as exchange wars made a stride back, US yields climbed and the Fed stayed hawkish. But not everything is going in favor of the pair.

USD/JPY Fundamental Active Players

BOJ Policy Updation

The due date traveled every which way and the US didn’t force new duties on China. On one hand, Trump debilitated to include extra ones. Then again, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin started chats with China. Does he have the support of Trump? Likely not, but rather Trump is occupied with Florence, the tropical storm beating the Eastern seaboard.

Developing markets are additionally more settled with Turkey at last raising rates and no new antagonistic advancements in different nations. Argentina keeps consulting with the IMF.

The Federal Reserve stays hawkish with both Brainard and Evans implying that loan fees may go past unbiased, otherwise known as higher than expansion. Expansion really dropped: Core CPI tumbled from 2.4% to 2.2%, incidentally weighing on the greenback. Retail deals were blended with a miss on the feature however with significant upward modifications. Customer certainty beat desires with 100.8 focuses.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, getting ready for an inner authority challenge inside his party, said that free money related approach won’t keep going forever. Is the BOJ going to fix? Not so quick, but rather the yen may respond decidedly.

Housing Data, and The BOJ

The upcoming week is fairly more peaceful with housing starts, building licenses, and existing home deals to give a report on the lodging segment. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is likewise of intrigue.

Trade may return into play. Markets will need to hear uplifting news from the arrangements, yet these may never come. Everything relies upon Trump.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Technical Chart USD/JPY

USDJPY 17-Sep to 21-Sep, USD/JPY

 

1. 113.15 is the high point found in July. 112.45 was a venturing stone for the match when it exchanged on such high ground. 112.15 was a swing high right off the bat in the month.

2. 111.80 was a top in the diminishing long periods of August and fills in as opposition. Close by, 111.50 topped the combine heretofore and is another hindrance.

3. 110.60 was a swing low in late July and after that again in late August. 109.70 was a swing low in late August and gives additional help beneath the cycle 110 level.

4. Close by, 109.35 was a pad in mid-July. 108.70 was a pad from the get-go in the mid-year and 108.10 a swing low in late May.

5. Lower, we find 107.50 topped the combine toward the beginning of April and is a solid line.

 
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Weekly USD/JPY Forecast 10-Sep to Sep-14

USD/JPY Forecast 10-Sep to Sep-14 (Fundamental and Technical Analysis)

USD/JYP is unable to hold its gains, as Dollar getting its grab on market. Tariffs remain in the highlight but USD has support from US inflation and retail sales.

USDJPY Fundamental Analysis

 

1. The US Tariffs:

The due date for open remarks on the levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese merchandise finished. While the US didn’t report the usage of these obligations, President Donald Trump as of now touted additionally imposes on an extra $267 billion worth of items. This weighed on business sectors as the week attracted to an end.

2. Brexit Announcement:

Prior, the disposition changed by advancements in Brexit, which went both ways. A report about the UK and Germany dropping their requests was later denied, however, it helped markets and USD/JPY. Another factor was Emerging Markets. Nothing was settled in Argentina and Turkey, however, there were no new unfavorable improvements.

3. Non-Farm Payrolls:

The Non-Farm Payrolls turned out superior to anything expected with 201K occupations picked up. All the more critically, compensation progressed by 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y. This fortifies the chances of a fourth-rate climb this year, in December. A September climb was at that point valued in before the occasion.

4. US Inflation:

In the US, the inflation report is released on Thursday and is unlikely to continue climbing. Core CPI reached 2.4% last month. On Friday, retail sales also carry relatively moderate expectations for the August report after a robust July. Japan will publish its final GDP number which is unlikely to move markets.

 

USDJPY Technical Analysis

usd-jpy-forecast-sep-10-14

1. 113.15 is the high point found in July. 112.15 was a swing high from the get-go in the month.

2. 111.80 was a crest in the withering long stretches of August and fills in as obstruction. Close by, 111.50 topped the match heretofore and is another obstruction.

3. 110.60 was a swing low in late July and after that again in late August. 109.70 was a swing low in late August and gives additional help underneath the cycle 110 level.

4. Close by, 109.35 was a pad in mid-July. 108.70 was a pad right off the bat in the late spring and 108.10 a swing low in late May.

5. Lower, we find 107.50 topped the combine toward the beginning of April and is a solid line.

EURUSD Looking Toward PMIs, ECB to Sustain Stability

EUR/USD Loses The Hold almost 1.1550

The match remedies bring down in the wake of neglecting to move past 1.1630.

The greenback snatches some purchasing interest and retakes 95.50.

PMIs in Euroland and ECB minutes next on tap in the docket.

In the wake of neglecting to progress encourage north of the key obstruction locale at 1.1630, EUR/USD has set out in an adjustment lower to the current mid-1.1500s. Before you read completely this post. We would like to inform you that we are providing forex signals for the trader to reduce your capital risk with our expert’s advice.

EUR/USD looks to PMIs, ECB

After six back to back sessions with picks up, the combine is presently exchanging on edge as EUR-bulls neglected to expand the rally past 1.1600 the figure on a more supportable mold.

The failure of the spot to break higher propelled merchants to venture in, hauling spot bring down alongside a get in the interest for the buck. Truth be told, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bolster in the 95.00 neighborhood, drawing in plunge purchasers.

In the information space, the ECB will distribute its minutes from the most recent minutes while progressed PMIs for the long stretch of August are likewise due for discharge. Over the lake, the typical week by week writes about the work advertise is normally supported by streak PMIs and July’s New Home Sales.

eurusd 15 min chart 23-08-2018

EUR/USD levels to observe

Right now, the match is losing 0.27% at 1.1564 and a break underneath 1.1539 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1453 (10-day SMA) in transit to 1.1299 (2018 low Aug.15). On the upside, the following obstacle develops at 1.1623 (high Aug.22) backed by 1.1629 (high Aug.8) lastly 1.1745 (high Jul.31).