Weekly GBP/USD Forecast from October 1 to October 5

One more tough week for GBP/USD filled with following announcements Brexit headlines, Fed decision, Weak Data, The Conservative Party Conference and PMI data. 

Let’s take a Look on Technical and  Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD

Fundamental News Updates GBP/USD:

1. Conservative Party Conference: Sunday to Wednesday. Prime Minister Theresa May may face a challenge from hard-Brexiteers while playing an important role with her former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. Pro-Rayan MPs are also playing.

2. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:30. The first of Markit’s forward-looking indices relate to the manufacturing sector. The indicator stood at a not-so-impressive 52.8 points in August. A minor drop to 52.6 is on the cards. A fall below 50 would indicate contraction.

3. Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 8:30. A higher borrowing rate implies enhanced economic activity. After a level of 4 billion pounds in July, an increase to 4.8 billion is projected for August.

4. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 6:00. This housing sector measure comes out quite early. After a drop of 0.5%, a rise of 0.2% is on the forecast.

5. Construction PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The second PMI is for the more volatile construction sector. A minor drop from 52.9 to 52.8 points is on the cards. The figure dropped below 50 points early in the year and this can happen again.

6. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium’s measure rose by only 0.1% y/y in August, showing that inflation is not that high. A similar figure could be seen now.

7. Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. The third and final purchasing managers’ indicator from Markit is for the largest sector: the services one. Back in August, the number slightly surprised with 54.3 points, reflecting OK growth. It will be interesting to see if concerns about Brexit adversely impact the result. A score of 54 points is on the cards.

8. Halifax HPI: Friday, 7:30. Contrary to Nationwide, this HPI showed an increase back in August, but only 0.1%. A rise of 0.2% is expected now.

 

Technical Lines Chart:

GBPUSD forecast 01-oct to 05-oct

 

Important Technical Lines for Trading:

1. In July 1.3375 was a high point. After this 1.3315 captured the pair early that month.

2. In mid-July, there was a high point of 1.3215 for the pair and a lower height on the chart. The round number of 1.3100 supported the first pair in September.

3. After supporting the pair at the end of September, the round number of 1.3000 is important.

4. Under 1.3000 we find 1.2935, which is a high point at the end of August. 1.2865 different categories at the end of August Further down, 1.2790 supported the late August and earlier also.

5. When the pair was on the previous leg, 1.2750 kept the pair down. The current 2018 deficit is at the next level at 1.2660.

6. The swing was low on 1.25 9 September 2017. Even less, 1.25 is a round number and at the beginning of 2017 also worked as support.

Source

Klse Stock News- Bursa Malaysia Stocks Open Lower on Friday, Axiata & Public Bank Weigh Market in Early Trade

Kuala Lumpur: Bursa Malaysia stock prices opened lower on Friday with the FTSE Bursa Composite Index down 3.78 points to 1,794.86 at 9.05am. The trading volume was 99.04 million lots worth RM33.21 million. There were 107 gainers versus 71 decliners and 161 counters unchanged.

Bursa Malaysia slipped in early trade despite a positive Wall Street performance overnight as equities were floated on strong economic data.

 

Stock Watch

The top KLSE active stock including Orion rising 0.5 sen to nine sen, AWC adding 1.5 sen to 92 sen and Hiap Teck, losing 0.5 sen to 40.5 sen.

The top KLSE gainer stocks are some heavyweights that paced higher were PPB adding 10 sen to RM16.88 and Maybank rising 10 sen to RM9.64.

The top KLSE loser stocks are, Axiata that slid five sen to RM4.68 as it grew less likely to accept an offer for its stake in M1. Public Bank lost 10 sen to RM24.90 while Sime Darby shed four sen to RM2.60.

 

Global Market

At Asia’s open, Japan’s Nikkei rose a strong 1.1%, within reach of 2018 high achieved in January. Nasdaq index opens up today with 8,042.0 and previous close at 51.6 and HANG SENG index open with 0.35% to reach 27,813.58.

 

Currency Market

The RINGGIT opens lower against the US dollar early Friday. At 9 am (0100 GMT), the local currency stood at 4.1430/1460 against 4.1380/1420 recorded at 6 pm Thursday.

The RINGGIT traded higher up against other major currencies on from the previous day

-It rose against the Singapore dollar to 3.0283/0316 from 3.0315/0349 on Thursday and strengthened with the Yen to 3.6505/6542 from 3.6697/6743.

-The local currency also upgrades against the Euro to 4.8229/8276 from yesterday’s 4.8427/8495 and appreciated the British pound to 5.4182/4230 from 5.4315/4380.

 

Commodity Market

The oil prices continued to push higher on expectations of hard supply when US sanctions on Iran come into play. US crude was seven sen higher at US$72.19 a barrel while Brent crude was flat to US$81.72 per barrel.

KLSE Stocks News: Bursa Malaysia Open Lower on Monday with the FTSE Composite Index down 1.41 points to 1,809.23

Kuala Lumpur: Bursa Malaysia share prices opened lower on Monday with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index down 1.41 points to 1,809.23 at 9 am. The Investors on Bursa Malaysia diverted to profit-taking in this Monday morning session. The trading volume was 31.32 million lots worth RM12.08 million and there were 216 gainers versus 465 decliners and 300 counters unchanged.

Global Markets

The Bilateral trade talk programme between China and the US was canceled due to lack of positive leads to sustain the previous week’s rally. 
Key markets Japan, China, and South Korea were closed on Monday due to Autumn festivals and holidays.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, which remained open, shed 1.25%.

Stocks Price Penetration

The Counters on the 30-stock index were mostly lower, led by Tenaga Nasional shedding 12 sen to RM15.56 and among other leading decliners, Sime Darby Plantation dropped nine sen to RM5.27, MAxis fell seven sen to RM5.81 and Digi shed five sen to RM4.79. 
The IOI gaining from 2 sen to RM4.50 in rose stocks. Petronas Gas adding 12 sen to RM19.12 and Telekom Malaysia adding one sen to RM3.22.

Dutch Lady Milk Industry BHD added RM1.30 to RM65.40, VItrox rose eight sen to RM7.78 and BAT gained eight sen to RM33.24 at the border market and United Plantation rose 38 sen to RM27.50 on the deal of its accession of plantation land from Pinehill Pacific, which jumped 12 sen to 56 sen.

Currency Stats

The ringgit was little changed against the US dollar at 4.1337. It rose 0.9% against the pound sterling at 5.4067 and 0.1% against the Singapore dollar at 3.0256.

Commodity Stats

The oil market jumped as Opec and Russia decided against lower oil prices ahead of US sanctions on Iran. WTI crude rose 81 cents to US$71.59 a barrel while Brent crude gained US$1.01 to US$79.81 a barrel.

 

Technical Analysis Highlights for EUR/USD

The central bank will debate an exit from the QE program in the upcoming week.
  • The US dollar suffered a profit-taking sell-off early in the week.
  • EUR/USD enjoys a strong start to the week – 1.1866 the next target.
  • Germany’s ZEW institution reported a pessimistic sentiment in the past two months with a score of -8.2 points.
 The Wholesale Price Index found as another measure of inflation.
EUR/USD broke a long losing streak and recouped from the lows, yet not shut on the highs. What’s straightaway? The ECB choice is left, right, and focus in a bustling week in the shadow of gratings around the worldwide exchange. Here is a viewpoint for the features of this current week and a refreshed specialized investigation for EUR/USD.
After things quieted down in Italy, the euro got another lift from the ECB. The national bank will face off regarding an exit from the QE program in the forthcoming week. This is in opposition to a refusal manage it prior and it helped the regular money recoup. Information amid the week was blended. The US dollar endured a benefit taking auction right on time in the week and furthermore overlooked peppy information, for example, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. It at that point somewhat recuperated as dread started sneaking in. What’s straightaway?
EUR/USD Trading Alerts: 
Jun 11, 8:39: EUR/USD appreciates a solid beginning to the week – 1.1866 the following focus on The EUR/USD is opposing gravity, opening the week on a positive note, topping 1.1800. What is next for the world’s generally famous. EUR/USD day by day outline with help and opposition lines on it. Snap to develop:
French Final Private Payrolls: Tuesday, 5:30. The second-biggest economy in the euro-zone appreciated an extension of 0.3% in its aggregate workforce in Q1 as indicated by the underlying figures. The last read will probably affirm it.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 8:00. Germany’s ZEW foundation announced a negative conclusion in the previous two months with a score of – 8.2 focuses. For the period of June, this cynicism is estimated to develop with a tumble to – 14.6 focuses. The all-European figure is evaluated to have dropped from 2.4 to 0.1 focuses.
Work Change: Wednesday, 9:00. The general change in work isn’t as imperative as the joblessness rate yet at the same time gives a wide, quarterly picture. An expansion of 0.3% is on the cards for Q1 2018 after a similar size of rises previously.
Mechanical Production: Wednesday, 9:00. The figures for Germany, France, and some different nations are now out, yet the all-European measure does not generally meet early desires. After an ascent of 0.5% in March, the report for April is relied upon to demonstrate a drop of 0.5%.
German Final CPI: Thursday, 6:00. Just before the ECB choice, individuals from the Governing Council will get an indication of the expansion circumstance. As indicated by the primer discharge for May, costs ascended by 0.5% m/m, powered for the most part by vitality. The last read is required to affirm the underlying one.
French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45. The second-biggest economy additionally observed costs ascend in May, 0.4% in the glimmer distribution. And furthermore here, an affirmation of that read is on the cards.
Rate choice: Thursday, 11:45, with the question and answer session at 12:30. Desires are currently significantly higher than they used to be after reports turned out about a live dialog on the subsequent stages in the Quantitative Easing program, a subject the Governing Council abstained from in past social events. The current QE program goes through September and has a pace of 30 billion euros for every month. Markets expect additional security purchasing at the three outstanding long stretches of the year, but at a slower pace, before buys arrive at an end. An underlying rate climb is anticipated for mid-2019. The ECB may, in fact, declare the decrease and end of bond purchasing, yet the points of interest are to some degree not yet decided. A reasonable pledge to end QE with an end date could support the euro while a more obscure proclamation about future moves could weigh on it. On the off chance that Draghi just says that a discourse was held yet does not make any declarations, the drop could be keener. The conjectures for expansion and development could likewise have an effect.
German WPI: Friday, 6:00. The Wholesale Price Index fills in as another measure of swelling. Vacillations at the discount level influence the retail one.
Last CPI: Friday, 9:00. The ascent in both feature and center swelling figures in May has enhanced the mindset at the ECB. The last read is required to affirm the underlying read: 1.9% on the feature and 1.1% on the center. Changes are normal.
Exchange adjust Friday, 9:00. The euro-zone appreciates an expansive surplus in its exchange adjust because of German fares. The surplus remained at 21.2 billion euros in March and is currently figure to somewhat press to 20.2 billion.

Down Trend May Continue for Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar swings on May’s RBA existing conditions rate hold. The Aussie could fall if a hawkish Fed supports the US Dollar

The Australian Dollar demonstrated a fairly blended reaction to May’s RBA rate choice, however, AUD/USD could be in danger of falling in the near future. Australia’s national bank left its money rate target unaltered at 1.50% noat surprisingly. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia emphasized that an unaltered strategy is reliable with meeting maintainable development in the economy and accomplishing the expansion focus after some time.

Quite a bit of what was specified in this announcement was left unaltered from the earlier one. The RBA recognized that current expansion information was in accordance with the bank’s desires. In general, the national bank still seems, by all accounts, to be in no hurry to raise rates right now. Overnight record swaps aren’t evaluating in a superior than-even shot of an RBA climb until February 2019. Maybe Governor Philip Lowe could have more to include later today at a board supper.

With the RBA now behind us, the Australian Dollar would now be able to center around other household and outer occasion dangers. Not long from now we will get neighborhood exchange adjust information took after by the national bank’s announcement on fiscal approach. While they may offer a transient reaction, it is seemingly the FOMC rate choice that can accomplish more. In the event that the US Dollar ascends on remarks from policymakers that resound late ruddy monetary viewpoints, at that point, the Aussie may fall.

AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: IS THE DESCENDING CHANNEL HISTORY?

Utilizing inferred instability, we determined the range low/high to get a thought of where AUD/USD could go in the close term. From here, quick help is around 0.7497 which intently lines up with both the 61.8% Fibonacci augmentation and the December 2017 lows. A break underneath that spots 0.7455 as the following target.

Australian-Dollar-Could-Still-Fall-After-Status-Quo-RBA-Rate-Hold_body_AUD_USD 01-05-2018
Australian-Dollar-Could-Still-Fall-After-Status-Quo-RBA-Rate-Hold_body_AUD_USD 01-05-2018

Then again, if costs turn higher, at that point the lower line of the dropping channel from February could go about as previous help now protection. A pushover that uncovered the 50 percent midpoint of the augmentation around 0.7566. Source

OPEC Report Lift Up Gold and Crude Oil Price in Commodity Market

Commodity Trading News Updates:
Raw petroleum and gold costs ascended in the midst of expanded Syria struggle risk on Wednesday

Consideration now swings to the US reaction and the approaching month to month OPEC oil report

Both gold and raw petroleum outlines give cautioning suggestions that costs may soon head lower

Unrefined petroleum costs climbed in excess of two percent on Wednesday, moving to the most astounding point since December 2014. The risk of a contention between the US and Syria helped push costs higher notwithstanding EIA oil inventories expanding by the most since early March. In the meantime, gold costs additionally aroused. Notwithstanding, a portion of the additions in the counter fiat yellow metal were lost when the US Dollar revived towards the finish of the day.

We likewise had the second day of the International Energy Forum in New Delhi. There, OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo talked and said that the gathering is sure that they “will get inventories to the 5-year normal in 2018.” He included that the cartel sees consistency in March higher than in February.

Looking forward, on Thursday OPEC will issue their month to month oil advertise report. Already, the gathering needed to decrease supply by more than foreseen on account of an excess in the non-OPEC generation. Since Barkindo likewise specified that worldwide inventories are around 42 million bbl over the 5-year normal yesterday, maybe extra alterations could be probable. More slices of the supply may support oil costs.

Moreover, watch out for how the US reacts to the Syria circumstance. President Donald Trump addressed Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and they are as yet measuring choices for military activity. Both unrefined petroleum and gold costs could be left helpless against how the circumstance unfurls. In the event, that notion decays again and the US Dollar falls, gold costs may profit.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

gold technical chart analysis 12-04-2018

Gold costs are attempting to gain ground to the upside, however, the ware has neglected to close over the protection line of a slipping channel. Wednesday’s high additionally verged on testing the January high of 1,366.13. Negative RSI difference likewise implies that costs may soon fall. From here, close term bolster is at 1,340.94 which has gone about as protection in the past too. A push underneath that uncovered 1,323.65 which was a territory gold attempted to fall through in late March/early April.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude-Oil-Prices-chart 12-04-2018

Not at all like gold, raw petroleum costs shut above key protection. That being the January 25th high of 66.60. Be that as it may, similar to gold, negative RSI dissimilarity is likewise present indicating energy to the upside is ebbing. Also, oil has not cleared the 38.2% Fibonacci augmentation at 67.33. From here the following target would be the half midpoint at 70.23. Then again, close term support could be the January 25th high took after by the 23.6% level at 63.74. Source

The Outlook for EUR/USD Forex Trading Pair

So far this year unpredictability in the FX-range has been dreary generally regardless of an upstart in value showcase instability. Sooner or later this will change, yet to the point that it does we should keep on taking what the market offers.

Blurring key levels after force slows down will remain the essential amusement. When energy accumulates pace, at that point we can switch riggings and search for breakout-style exchanges, bigger value goals, and different attributes identified with a higher-vol administration.

EUR/USD, IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD diverted higher on Friday from help, displaying an alluring open door for years. In any case, now that we are back in the thick of the range since January, new passages don’t offer great hazard/remunerate. Protection stays at the 2008 pattern line in the mid-12400s. This could be another region to look for a blur.

EUR/USD DAILY CHART (RANGE-BOUND)

Trading-Outlook-for-EURUSD- 11-04-2018
Trading-Outlook-for-EURUSD- 11-04-2018

7 Things to Do In a Volatile Stock Market

Yes, the market is sometimes volatile but the degree of its volatility adjusts over time. Over the short term, stock prices tend not to climb in nice straight lines. A chart of day-to-day stock prices looks like a mountain range with plenty of peaks and valleys, formed by the daily highs and lows.
Volatility refers to the upward and downward movement of price. For the first time in history a month ago, the almost 122-year-old Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) finished lower by in excess of 1,000 points during a single trading session not once, but twice — minus 1,175 points on Feb. 5, and minus 1,033 points on Feb. 8.
Besides, the Dow logged some of its most out of control intraday point swings since origin. All through its history, the Dow has moved more than 1,000 focuses intraday on seven events. Four of its five broadest intraday swings happened over a traverse of only one week in February, including a drop of almost 1,600 focuses at its top on Feb. 5, 2018.

7 Things to Do During a Volatile Stock Market

Malaysia stock tips here are seven things long-term investors should do during a volatile market:
1. Breathe
The main thing you’ll need to do is inhale and not do anything rash, similar to offer the greater part of your stocks. It’s improbable your whole speculation proposition will disentangle in light of the fact that money markets have been unstable, regardless of what number of focuses the Dow or expansive based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) lose amid a solitary session.

2. Realize this is normal
Understand that stock market corrections with a step back are the next step — defined as a decline of 10% or more from a recent high — are perfectly normal. The S&P 500 has undergone 36 remedies since 1950, working out to about one every two years. Be that as it may, staying with that greater picture see, the S&P 500 has likewise spent around threefold the number of days (more than 18,000) arousing or in positively trending market mode in respect to the roughly 6,600 it’s spent in adjustment or bear showcase region since 1950. Despite how quick or unstable the decreases have been, positively trending market arouses have inevitably eradicated each of the 35 past revisions (not including the present one).

3. Put the volatility into context
Third, you have to put the instability and decreases you’ve been seeing into the setting. At the end of the day, quit concentrating such a great amount on nominal point swings, in spite of the awe that 1,175-point decay may bring, and center around the rates that underlie them. In all actuality, not a solitary decrease in the Dow has topped 4.6%during the corrections, which is no place close to the 20 most terrible single-day rate exhibitions ever for the notable list. Truth be told, we’d need to go back just about 10 years to locate the last time the Dow had a genuinely bad day (Dec. 1, 2008).

Malaysia stocks trading tips

4. Reassess your investment theses
Fourth is the, By explicitly writing down an investing thesis – specific goals for each investment in a portfolio – anyone can become better prepared to make decisions, re-allocate funds and analyze their performance over time. Of course, when the stock market is going up in an orderly fashion, this isn’t often a priority. With the market considerably more volatile than it was in 2017, now is the ideal time to guarantee that your speculation proposals still remain constant. In the event that they don’t for a stock or stocks, at that point it could be an ideal opportunity to think about offering.

5. Add dividend stocks to your portfolio (High Dividend Stocks Malaysia)
In the stock market, nothing is successful; dividend stocks have historically run circles around non-dividend-paying stocks because dividend stocks often have a time-tested business model. A company wouldn’t pay a dividend, Profits can likewise help fence against the inescapable stock market, and they can be reinvested in much more profit paying stock, which can quicken riches creation.

high dividend stocks Malaysia

6. Consider taking new positions or adding to existing holdings
So, here we are discussing, consider taking new positions or adding to existing positions anytime the stock market dips considerably. The stock market has erased all previous 35 corrections, within the weeks or months. But you won’t make money with every stock you invest in, simply we know that high-quality businesses increase wherein value over time should allow you to do something to do well if you maintain a long-term view.

7. Wean yourself off of margin
At last, happen to be using margin to invest beyond simply short-selling equities, consider this volatility as a reminder to stop that! While utilizing margin can result in bigger-than-expected gains, it can also be a path to losses when corrections do unavoidably strike. It’s a bet not worth taking.

Weekly EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD TECHNICAL STRATEGY: SHORT AT 1.2407

Euro rejected at commonplace pattern line protection by and by

Break of minor help uncovered help underneath 1.22 figure

Picking not to scale up the presentation as Fed approach call looms

The Euro is attempting to discover close term directional conviction however general diagram situating is as yet proposing that the easiest course of action drives lower. A week ago’s allude to bearish increasing speed demonstrated misdirecting, however, cost activity keeps on being characterized by a progression of lower highs set from a twofold best shaped underneath 1.26.

Gold-and-Crude-Oil-Prices-Buoyed-By-McMaster-Bolton-Switch_body_Picture_23-03-2018
Gold-and-Crude-Oil-Prices-Buoyed-By-McMaster-Bolton-Switch_body_Picture_23-03-2018

A break underneath the March 9 low at 1.2273 has uncovered the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2173. A further rupture beneath that affirmed on a day by day shutting premise focuses on the 1.2055-70 region (half level, August 29 high). On the other hand, a move back over 1.2273 goes for a retest of pattern line protection, now at 1.2374 Source

Canadian Dollar Fundamental Analysis and News

While monetary standards like the Dollar, Euro and Yen have combined in spite of clear dangers, the Canadian Dollar has won the little break

Oil costs have held the light, however, Canada’s advantage has been checked because of the excess of the item and a record US yield

Presently, protectionism is the Canadian Dollar’s most serious hazard to NAFTA renegotiations and US levies which will correct more extensive weight

The-Canadian-Dollar-the-Most-Fundamentally-Troubled-Major_body_CAD_Index 06-03-2018

The Canadian Dollar’s Tumble Indicates Something Is Amiss

Regardless of whether you weren’t up to speed on the principal topics course the business sectors, you would at present have the capacity to tell something genuine is measuring the Canadian Dollar. The cash has endured material misfortunes against monetary forms whose impact is by and large much more productive yet has favored combination as opposed to drifting, for example, USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, and EUR/CAD. The previous outperformed 1.2900 in leeway of a noteworthy protection while any semblance of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY remain moored. For EUR/CAD, the Italian race and its outcomes kept speculators questionable about the future while the ECB choice kept them from theoretical; yet this specific combine charged to new multi-year highs. What’s more, the Brexit-tied Sterling wouldn’t avoid GBP/CAD from clearing protection and shooting higher. Source