Weekly Commodity Forecast-21 Jan 2019 To 25 Jan 2019

Gold (Close price: $1282.60)

News: Last week the major focus was on Brexit deal and its outcome. U.K Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote but Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been rejected by the house of common. This was the largest defeat for a sitting government in history. Now conflict between Theresa May and the opposition party continue to grow. This uncertainty has been supportive of the dollar. While policymaker in Europe remains monetary easing stance active in future.

US Government partial shutdown continues on its 27th day, the longest shutdown of the government in the history. If politicians not able to resolve issues, it could have a negative impact on US GDP numbers.

Recent Fed dovish stance on future rate hike solely depends on market condition also weighs on dollar index and put upside limited.US and China trade war positive talk and its positive outcome put pressure on Dollar index and act as a catalyst for Gold price rise above $1300.

Dollar index almost falls more than 1% after hitting 97.50 during the first week of December, now trading at 96.

Analysis: Gold almost raised $100 in the last 3 months from NOV 18 to Jan 19. This price really starts from a level of $1200 to $1300.40. Now next leg of price move expected only above $1300 to take away this price level require strong momentum which is lacking this time.

Price struggle to hold the above level of $1297 and easily pulled down to test $1287 level. Last Friday price gives up the support of $1287 and falls below to test strong support of $1280. As per Fibonacci percentage levels 0.236% support came at $1276.77 and 0.382% level come at $1262.17. Time wise and price wise correction in Gold price expected and in meantime momentum indicator like RSI cool off from overbought level to neutral level.

Gold Technical Forecast

Technical Outlook:

Technically price still in uptrend and retracement is buying opportunity near $1262 level with a price target above $1300 with strong support came at $1250. In short term and for an active trader who trades with active stops can sell Gold near $1285-$1288 with price target below $1270 with strict cut loss level of $1297.

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Gold 1271.43 1278.23 1282.43 1289.23 1296.03 1300.23 1307.03
 
WTI Crude Oil (Close price: $53.73)

News: WTI Oil prices climbed to a level of $53.73 as China and US trade tension eases and demand from both countries increased. West Texas Intermediate crude oil delivery for February delivery raised $1.73 to settle at $53.80 a barrel on the Nymex.

Production from OPEC’s countries also looking to decrease its production and these 14 members sank by 751,000 barrels a day last month, which results visible in prices in the early week of Jan 19.

Crude Oil Forecast

Technical Analysis:

If crude oil breaks above the $53 level, the market could go to higher levels, as high as $55 where we would see even more resistance. Now price band for crude oil remains between $50.50-$55.

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
WTI Crude oil 45.8 47.79 49.01 51 52.99 54.21 56.2

 

Nymex Crude Oil Trading In range Bound $50-$53 With Positive Bias.

Fundamental News And Impact

Crude oil trading higher with slight range-bound price action. Every price slide used to buy by the trader. Earlier as expected production cuts from the OPEC and Russia which began this month provide additional price cushion.

Major support came from the news that the U.S. and China will reach a trade agreement and hope that China will provide more stimuli after its weak economic data

US crude oil production has offset the impact on rising crude oil prices lead by OPEC-led production cuts. Major details will be seen from crude oil inventory reports. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, production is expected to rise to 12.0 million barrels per day this year and to nearly 13.0 million barrels per day in 2020.

Technical Outlook and Analysis

On weekly charts, crude oil bounced back from $42 to currently trading near $52.Earlier crude oil saw massive selling when it broke the level of $49. Now momentum indicator like RSI turning up from the oversold region which gives support to price rise.

Crude Oil Analysis

On shorter time frame like on hourly price facing resistance near $53.2 and some price retracement from this level can bring crude oil to the price range of $51-$50.50.

If price not able to hold strong support of $50 then level of $48 again expected but this is the second case still price oversold on weekly charts.

Major Weekly Support Resistance As Below:

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
WTI Crude Oil 45.8 47.79 49.01 51 52.99 54.21 56.2

 

Silver Facing Resistance At $15.80 Near Descending Trend Line Breakout Of Which Can Spurt Prices

Fundamental News & Impact

Last week precious metal saw spectacular price move silver rose almost 2.48% and close around $15.67. Friday’s NFP (Non-Farm payroll) and unemployment rate data came below than consensus. US manufacturing PMI came at 54.1 below estimates 57.7.

Fed chairman Powell’s dovish comments for a future rate hike will depend on market condition and now near status quo situation further.

This push dollar index lower and safe heaven precious assets like Gold and Silver rose sharply. Gold mostly traded positive near $1300 mark.

Most investment bank firms and hedge fund houses have raised their target and hold a positive outlook on precious metal for the year 2019.

US president’s comments on government partial shutdown and the US & China trade war-related news also have an impact on Dollar strength.

Silver which is considered to be correlated to Gold underperforming quite some time which can be accessed by their percentage return for the same time span.

  Daily Weekly 1Month 1Year
Gold -0.45% 0.06% 2.52% -2.10%
Silver -0.77% 0.72% 6.38% -7.68%

Silver still have some room for price rise as comparing Gold.

 

Technical Outlook and Analysis

Silver on weekly charts earlier break below from symmetrical triangle and found support near $14, just near the lower end of triangle symmetrical triangle

Descending trend line, which forms by joining highs of triangle now act as resistance? Which clearly visible as by rising price stall here for some time.

Comex Technical Analysis

To continue further up move price need to break out from this zone of $15.80-$15.85 with good volume. We assume that this breakout can occur, to confirm our view we look at momentum indicator RSI which rising with price rise support strong momentum in the upside.

Price can rise to $16.25-$16.30 after resistance zone of $15.80 taken out if not then price slide to test strong support of $50 from where it started really.

Major support resistance level as below:

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
SILVER 15.139 15.357 15.491 15.709 15.927 16.061 16.279

Economic Events to Keep Eye:

In the coming day’s major key economic data like CPI m/m and core CPI m/m data of the US and fed minutes of the meeting will be released.

Date Time Currency Data Forecast Previous
9-Jan-19 07:30 USD President Trump Speaks
10-Jan-19 00:30 FOMC Meeting Minutes
10-Jan-19 22:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
11-Jan-19 19:00 USD CPI m/m -0.10% 0.00%
      Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%

Klse Stock News- Bursa Malaysia Stocks Open Lower on Friday, Axiata & Public Bank Weigh Market in Early Trade

Kuala Lumpur: Bursa Malaysia stock prices opened lower on Friday with the FTSE Bursa Composite Index down 3.78 points to 1,794.86 at 9.05am. The trading volume was 99.04 million lots worth RM33.21 million. There were 107 gainers versus 71 decliners and 161 counters unchanged.

Bursa Malaysia slipped in early trade despite a positive Wall Street performance overnight as equities were floated on strong economic data.

 

Stock Watch

The top KLSE active stock including Orion rising 0.5 sen to nine sen, AWC adding 1.5 sen to 92 sen and Hiap Teck, losing 0.5 sen to 40.5 sen.

The top KLSE gainer stocks are some heavyweights that paced higher were PPB adding 10 sen to RM16.88 and Maybank rising 10 sen to RM9.64.

The top KLSE loser stocks are, Axiata that slid five sen to RM4.68 as it grew less likely to accept an offer for its stake in M1. Public Bank lost 10 sen to RM24.90 while Sime Darby shed four sen to RM2.60.

 

Global Market

At Asia’s open, Japan’s Nikkei rose a strong 1.1%, within reach of 2018 high achieved in January. Nasdaq index opens up today with 8,042.0 and previous close at 51.6 and HANG SENG index open with 0.35% to reach 27,813.58.

 

Currency Market

The RINGGIT opens lower against the US dollar early Friday. At 9 am (0100 GMT), the local currency stood at 4.1430/1460 against 4.1380/1420 recorded at 6 pm Thursday.

The RINGGIT traded higher up against other major currencies on from the previous day

-It rose against the Singapore dollar to 3.0283/0316 from 3.0315/0349 on Thursday and strengthened with the Yen to 3.6505/6542 from 3.6697/6743.

-The local currency also upgrades against the Euro to 4.8229/8276 from yesterday’s 4.8427/8495 and appreciated the British pound to 5.4182/4230 from 5.4315/4380.

 

Commodity Market

The oil prices continued to push higher on expectations of hard supply when US sanctions on Iran come into play. US crude was seven sen higher at US$72.19 a barrel while Brent crude was flat to US$81.72 per barrel.

KLSE Stock News- Malaysia stocks open lower on Wednesday, Bursa Shares Continues Slide ahead of US Federal Decision

Kuala Lumpur: Bursa Malaysia continued its slide by opened its share prices lower on Wednesday with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index down 6.49 points to 1,787.98 at 9.01am. The trading volume was 115.48 million shares valued at RM53.74mil. There were 117 gainers versus 78 decliners and 179 counters unchanged. 

The consistency in share slide as global markets traded mixed ahead of decisions made at a two-day US Federal Reserve meeting set to end on Wednesday. Traders are broadly expecting the Fed to raise interest rates for the third time this year at the climax of the meeting in another round of tightening.

Stock Price Penetration

Pestech International Bhd, move higher  8 sen to RM1.53 as the group finally secured the Gemas-JB double track electrification project worth RM399mil. Other gainers included Scientex Berhad, which rose 14 sen to RM8.75 and UMW, pushing six sen higher to RM5.12.

On the losing end, Lotte Chemicals Titan shed 6 sen to RM5.01. Plantations were also seen to weigh with Sime Darby Plantation losing 5 sen to RM5.25 and IJM Plantation slide 3 sen to RM2.43.

Global Currency Market

The ringgit was almost unchanged against the US dollar in early trade Wednesday. At 9 am, the local currency stood at 4.1350/1400 against 4.1350/1390 recorded on the previous day. 

The ringgit traded mixed versus other major currencies
1. It rose against the Yen to 3.6609/6657 from 3.6638/6677 on Tuesday and strengthened against the Euro to 4.8628/8691 from 4.8644/8699. 
2. It depreciated against the Singapore Dollar to 3.0280/0321 from yesterday’s 3.0273/0309 and weakened against the British Pound to 5.4479/4561 from 5.4400/4465.

Commodity Market

The Brent oil fringe further away from a four-year high on Wednesday down 43 cents at US$81.44 a barrel. Earlier on Tuesday, Brent hit its highest since November 2014 at US$82.55 a barrel.

The US crude futures were down 40 cents at US$71.88 a barrel. The US said it would ensure crude markets are well supplied before the penalties are re-imposed on Iran.

 

 

Gold Trading Alerts: Important Updates for Gold Trader

Must Read: GOLD Trading Factors

Gold costs fall as Fed’s Brainard, Philly Fed information feed rate climb wagers. Unrefined petroleum costs burdened by US Dollar rise, general hazard avoidance. OPEC+ clergymen’s gathering, remarks from Fed’s Evans on tap ahead

The standpoint for US fiscal strategy was the focal protest of theory crosswise over money related markets Thursday. A furiously hawkish discourse from regularly timid Fed Governor Lael Brainard stirred an upshift in evaluated in 2019 rate climb wagers while the yielding bend steepened, with the spread between rates on 10-and 2-year Treasury securities ascending by the most in more than two months.

Brainard talked unfavorably of “building cycle weights” that she expects will be strengthened by financial boost, suggesting a pickup in swelling. She likewise stressed resoundingly over “raised hazard” from extended resource valuations and business use levels, cautioning against “lack of concern” about vulnerabilities. A precarious ascent in acknowledged and expected value weight in the Philadelphia Fed survey of organizations strengthened the point.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold-Price-Forecast 20-04-2018
Gold-Price-Forecast 20-04-2018

Gold costs are as yet stuck underneath protection in the 1353.87-57.50 territory (twofold best, falling pattern line). Every day close above it uncovered July 2016 high at 1375.15. On the other hand, a turn beneath close term rising pattern line bolster at 1340.73 uncovered the range floor at 1307.25.

Crude Oil Technical and Fundamental Overview

Crude Oil costs snap five-day win streak as Syria stresses ease. Programming interface stock stream information beside control value slant advancement. Gold costs may break a gridlock on approaching Fed editorial

Crude Oil costs turned strongly lower, snapping a five-day winning streak. The move appears to have reflected facilitating worries about the acceleration in Syria after US President Trump flagged an end of the week rocket assault intended to rebuff the administration for utilizing synthetic weapons was a unique case. Trump additionally moved in an opposite direction from sanctions went for punishing Russia for its help of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

In the meantime, gold costs stamped time as ebbing geopolitical hazard converted into firming hazard craving, boosting Fed rate climb wagers while at the same time undermining support for the US Dollar. The last impact appeared to reflect ebbing sanctuary request and also the re-development of the view that widening worldwide recuperation will see top national banks limit the US national bank’s lead down the way to boost withdrawal. This put gold’s parts as hostile to fiat and benchmark non-enthusiasm bearing resource in strife, converting into a stop.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude-Oil-Prices-Snap-5-Day-Win-Streak-Eye-Inventory-Data_body_Picture_1 17-04-2018

Crude Oil costs pulled back from protection bunch in the 66.63-67.49 territory (January 25 high, rising channel top, 38.2% Fibonacci development). From here, a move back underneath the 23.6% level at 63.90 opens the entryway for a trial of channel floor bolster at 62.50. On the other hand, turn over 67.49 sees the following upside hindrance at 70.38, the half Fib. Source

OPEC Report Lift Up Gold and Crude Oil Price in Commodity Market

Commodity Trading News Updates:
Raw petroleum and gold costs ascended in the midst of expanded Syria struggle risk on Wednesday

Consideration now swings to the US reaction and the approaching month to month OPEC oil report

Both gold and raw petroleum outlines give cautioning suggestions that costs may soon head lower

Unrefined petroleum costs climbed in excess of two percent on Wednesday, moving to the most astounding point since December 2014. The risk of a contention between the US and Syria helped push costs higher notwithstanding EIA oil inventories expanding by the most since early March. In the meantime, gold costs additionally aroused. Notwithstanding, a portion of the additions in the counter fiat yellow metal were lost when the US Dollar revived towards the finish of the day.

We likewise had the second day of the International Energy Forum in New Delhi. There, OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo talked and said that the gathering is sure that they “will get inventories to the 5-year normal in 2018.” He included that the cartel sees consistency in March higher than in February.

Looking forward, on Thursday OPEC will issue their month to month oil advertise report. Already, the gathering needed to decrease supply by more than foreseen on account of an excess in the non-OPEC generation. Since Barkindo likewise specified that worldwide inventories are around 42 million bbl over the 5-year normal yesterday, maybe extra alterations could be probable. More slices of the supply may support oil costs.

Moreover, watch out for how the US reacts to the Syria circumstance. President Donald Trump addressed Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and they are as yet measuring choices for military activity. Both unrefined petroleum and gold costs could be left helpless against how the circumstance unfurls. In the event, that notion decays again and the US Dollar falls, gold costs may profit.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

gold technical chart analysis 12-04-2018

Gold costs are attempting to gain ground to the upside, however, the ware has neglected to close over the protection line of a slipping channel. Wednesday’s high additionally verged on testing the January high of 1,366.13. Negative RSI difference likewise implies that costs may soon fall. From here, close term bolster is at 1,340.94 which has gone about as protection in the past too. A push underneath that uncovered 1,323.65 which was a territory gold attempted to fall through in late March/early April.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude-Oil-Prices-chart 12-04-2018

Not at all like gold, raw petroleum costs shut above key protection. That being the January 25th high of 66.60. Be that as it may, similar to gold, negative RSI dissimilarity is likewise present indicating energy to the upside is ebbing. Also, oil has not cleared the 38.2% Fibonacci augmentation at 67.33. From here the following target would be the half midpoint at 70.23. Then again, close term support could be the January 25th high took after by the 23.6% level at 63.74. Source

Commodities Trading In Malaysia: Bullish Resolutions Eyed Upon!

While there was a lot of hustle-bustle in the stock market, the FX market was haunting quiet. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed nearly 85 handles above its low for the day, establishing a daily bullish outside engulfing bar in the process. Meanwhile, the DXY Index barely registered a move at all, posting an inside day relative to Tuesday’s high-low range.

For the US Dollar, there may be a genuine case that the driver of equity market volatility – tension over trade tariffs with China – has proven to be an offsetting factor to the greenback’s current stature as a safe haven currency.

Many factors have proven to be a road to nowhere for the US Dollar: while the imposition of tariffs and a trade war would be bad for the US Dollar, equity market’s constant weakness has raised the need of safety of world’s reserve currency. And vice-versa: when trade tensions ease, which is good for the US Dollar, they are allowing equity markets to rebound, which is negative for the buck.

gold trading chart 05-04-2018

While we wait for FX markets – and similarly, bond markets – to partake in the large swings seen by stocks, a different safe haven has proven quite active amidst the headlines: Gold.

Gold remains unified, symmetrical triangle in January start, then many price movements are observed; mirroring moves as the S&P 500 roared back on Wednesday, Gold slid sharply from its daily highs back to its opening price level – more than a 1% drop intraday.

Fundamentally, trade tensions have fanged higher across the globe thanks to the United States, be it with China, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico re NAFTA, or the European Union. Likewise, concerns about the trajectory of the deficit and the debt may have receded into the background thanks to trade war fears, but they won’t be going away anytime soon given the fiscal stance of the Trump administration.

gold trading alerts 05-april-2018

Technically, Gold’s symmetrical consolidation has occurred after breaking the sustained descending trend line from 2011, 2012, and 2016 swing highs. It’s fairly textbook to see a price consolidation after a bottom has been established, which developed in 2017.

In recent weeks, Gold established a series of higher lows on March 1, 20, and 28. With daily statistics and MACD trending higher above their respective median and signal lines, it appears the symmetrical triangle is favoring an upside break. In the near-term, while the equity market rebound on Wednesday may have delayed Gold’s advance, the backdrop for bullion remains favorably.

Gold and Crude Oil Prices Get Stable Due to McMaster

Commodity Trading News

Crude Oil costs teeter-totter on Trump taxes, McMaster abdication

Gold costs ascend as geopolitical feelings of dread undermine advertise precariousness

US tax exclusions, spending charge improbable to cool hazard avoidance

Crude Oil costs fell after Wednesday’s Fed-connected rally after the Trump organization slapped China with corrective taxes, activating expansive based hazard avoidance (as expected).The S&P 500 stock record – a benchmark for wide based market estimation – endured the biggest drop in about two months.

Gold costs likewise withdrew as the dismal state of mind stirred sanctuary interest for the US Dollar, undermining hostile to fiat choices. The move brought down was moderately agreeable however as the hazard off state of mind drove capital streams toward the security of Treasury securities, weighing on yields and boosting the interest of non-enthusiasm bearing resources.

Items were then shocked higher in early Asia Pacific exchange on news that US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster has surrendered. Mr. Trump intends to supplant him with the considerably more hawkish John Bolton, a previous minister to the United Nations.

Mr. Bolton has upheld pre-emptive military activity against Iran and North Korea. The danger of finish on the previous most likely stirred apprehensions about unrefined supply disturbance while the extensively more noteworthy shot of a combative US likely cautioned of general market insecurity, discoloring paper resources and lifting gold.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold-and-Crude-Oil-Prices-Buoyed-By-McMaster-Bolton-Switch_body_Picture_23-03-2018
Gold-and-Crude-Oil-Prices-Buoyed-By-McMaster-Bolton-Switch_body_Picture_23-03-2018

Gold costs are endeavoring to break protection set apart by the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 1333.51. Affirmation on a day by day shutting premise uncovered the 38.2% level at 1352.40the first significant layer of help comes in at 1307.25, the base of a range winning since early February.

Crude Oil TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold-and-Crude-Oil-Prices-Buoyed-By-McMaster-body_Picture_23-03-2018
Gold-and-Crude-Oil-Prices-Buoyed-By-McMaster-body_Picture_23-03-2018

Crude Oil costs are wavering beneath protection in the 66.63-67.49 zone (January 25 high, 38.2% Fibonacci extension). A break to the upside at first uncovered the half level at 70.38. Then again, a turn back underneath the 23.6% Fib at 63.90 makes room for a retest the $60/bbl figure. Source