Comex Analysis

Fundamental News & Impact

Last week precious metal saw spectacular price move silver rose almost 2.48% and close around $15.67. Friday’s NFP (Non-Farm payroll) and unemployment rate data came below than consensus. US manufacturing PMI came at 54.1 below estimates 57.7.

Fed chairman Powell’s dovish comments for a future rate hike will depend on market condition and now near status quo situation further.

This push dollar index lower and safe heaven precious assets like Gold and Silver rose sharply. Gold mostly traded positive near $1300 mark.

Most investment bank firms and hedge fund houses have raised their target and hold a positive outlook on precious metal for the year 2019.

US president’s comments on government partial shutdown and the US & China trade war-related news also have an impact on Dollar strength.

Silver which is considered to be correlated to Gold underperforming quite some time which can be accessed by their percentage return for the same time span.

  Daily Weekly 1Month 1Year
Gold -0.45% 0.06% 2.52% -2.10%
Silver -0.77% 0.72% 6.38% -7.68%

Silver still have some room for price rise as comparing Gold.

 

Technical Outlook and Analysis

Silver on weekly charts earlier break below from symmetrical triangle and found support near $14, just near the lower end of triangle symmetrical triangle

Descending trend line, which forms by joining highs of triangle now act as resistance? Which clearly visible as by rising price stall here for some time.

Comex Technical Analysis

To continue further up move price need to break out from this zone of $15.80-$15.85 with good volume. We assume that this breakout can occur, to confirm our view we look at momentum indicator RSI which rising with price rise support strong momentum in the upside.

Price can rise to $16.25-$16.30 after resistance zone of $15.80 taken out if not then price slide to test strong support of $50 from where it started really.

Major support resistance level as below:

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
SILVER 15.139 15.357 15.491 15.709 15.927 16.061 16.279

Economic Events to Keep Eye:

In the coming day’s major key economic data like CPI m/m and core CPI m/m data of the US and fed minutes of the meeting will be released.

Date Time Currency Data Forecast Previous
9-Jan-19 07:30 USD President Trump Speaks
10-Jan-19 00:30 FOMC Meeting Minutes
10-Jan-19 22:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
11-Jan-19 19:00 USD CPI m/m -0.10% 0.00%
      Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%

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